Markets Open · No. 038 · Published 9:31 AM ET
Make sense of the market, every morning.
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01

Three Things to Know

1

Gold and oil both tumbled over 3.5%

Gold fell 3.54% and oil 4.14% as the dollar rose. Traders are betting on a calmer world — cheaper fuel helps inflation, but the move could snap back if Friday's PCE runs hot.

2

Stocks went nowhere ahead of Friday's PCE

The S&P 500 inched up 0.12% and the Dow slipped 0.09%. Markets are holding their breath for the Fed's preferred inflation reading, due Thursday.

3

Qualcomm bought AI startup Modular for $3.9B

Another big chipmaker is paying up for AI software talent. The deals keep coming, a reminder that the AI spending race is far from cooling off.

02

Markets at a Glance

Composite Risk Score
5.5/10
Moderate · Stable Conditions
S&P 500+0.12%
7,374
5-day trend
NASDAQ+0.06%
25,602
5-day trend
DOW JONES
51,619
-0.09%
RUSSELL 2K
GOLD
3,984
-3.54%
OIL WTI
70.18
-4.14%
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03

World Markets

North America
S&P 5007,374.09+0.12%
Nasdaq25,601.55+0.06%
Dow Jones51,619.18-0.09%
Oil (WTI)70.18-4.14%
Gold3,983.70-3.54%
USD Index101.78+0.37%
Europe
FTSE 10010,418.57-0.10%
DAX24,604.05-1.16%
CAC 408,368.65+0.33%
Euro Stoxx 506,204.09-0.42%
Asia
Nikkei 22569,174.97-0.88%
Hang Seng23,412.18+0.33%
Shanghai4,110.81+0.11%
04

The Big Picture

Stocks barely moved. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.12%, the Nasdaq held flat, and the Dow slipped a hair. The real action was in commodities. Oil dropped 4.14% and gold fell 3.54% — both big moves for safe-haven and energy assets. When gold and oil sell off together while the dollar climbs, it usually means traders are dialing down their fear and betting on a calmer world. Quiet stocks, loud commodities. That's the day.

The gold drop is the one to watch. A 3.5% fall in one day means money is leaving the panic trade. That's good if you own stocks — it suggests confidence ahead of Friday's PCE inflation report, the Fed's favorite price gauge. But it's a setup. If PCE comes in hot, all that calm reverses fast, and the bets unwinding today get put right back on. Cheaper oil helps consumers and cools inflation, so the two stories could cancel out — or collide.

05

Story of the Day

Yahoo Finance

Sluggish Industrial Economy Impacted The Sherwin-Williams Company’s (SHW) Growth

Sherwin-Williams sells paint and coatings, and factories and builders are buying less of it. That's a quiet warning sign: when an industrial bellwether struggles, it usually means the broader manufacturing economy is soft. If you own funds tied to housing, construction, or industrials, this is a hint that demand is cooling.

06

More Headlines

07

Coming Up This Week

THU
25
8:30 AM ET
PCE (Personal Income & Outlays) ★★★
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge; a hot print could undo today's calm
8:30 AM ET
GDP (Q1 2026 Third Estimate) ★★
Final look at how fast the economy grew; big revisions move bonds
8:30 AM ET
Durable Goods Orders ★★
A read on whether factories are still ordering after Sherwin-Williams flashed weakness
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims ★★
Watch for any uptick — first crack in the labor story
FRI
26
10:00 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment (UMich, final) ★★
Tells us if shoppers still feel like spending
TUE
30
10:00 AM ET
Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) ★★
Key test of whether households are getting nervous
WED
1
10:00 AM ET
ISM Manufacturing PMI ★★
A miss here would confirm the industrial slowdown is real
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