WTI crude jumped to $73.86 after Trump hinted the U.S.-Iran truce is over. Higher oil feeds gas prices and complicates the Fed's inflation fight.
The record of the June meeting is out this afternoon and should show sharp disagreement among officials over cutting rates. Kevin Warsh's Fed is far from united.
The VIX rose to 17.39 as all major indexes fell and Europe's DAX dropped 1.66%. Investors are getting defensive, not fleeing.
Stocks slipped across the board, led by the Dow's 1.1% drop, but the real action was in oil. WTI jumped nearly 5% after Trump suggested the U.S.-Iran cease-fire is done. When oil spikes on geopolitics, everything else gets nervous — the VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, rose almost 8%. Bond yields ticked up too. The mood is cautious and jumpy, not panicked. Traders are pricing in the risk that a Middle East flare-up disrupts the world's most important shipping lane.
The risk to watch is the Strait of Hormuz. Kalshi traders now bet traffic won't normalize until 2027. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes through that narrow channel. If it stays choked, higher energy prices feed into inflation right as the Fed is fighting over whether to cut rates. Today's FOMC minutes are expected to reveal a 'family fight' among officials. A fresh oil shock makes their job harder and could delay any relief for borrowers.
UBS raised its price target on Halliburton but kept a neutral rating, which sounds contradictory but isn't. It means the bank thinks the oilfield-services company is worth more now — largely because oil prices are climbing — but not enough to tell you to rush in and buy. For everyday investors, it's a signal that energy stocks are getting a second look as crude surges past $73.
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