Markets Open · No. 051 · Published 9:31 AM ET
Make sense of the market, every morning.
← Issue 050 Issue 051
01

Three Things to Know

1

US-Iran fighting sends oil up, tech down

Weekend strikes pushed oil higher and knocked the Nasdaq 0.61% lower. Investors fled expensive tech and crowded into safer bets, splitting the market.

2

CPI and bank earnings both hit Tuesday

Inflation data lands the same morning JPMorgan and Bank of America report. A hot number would push Warsh's Fed to hold rates longer.

3

Asia got crushed while Wall Street shrugged

The Nikkei fell 1.92% and Shanghai 2.06%, with SK Hynix plunging. The Dow actually rose 0.16% — a reminder that risk hit chips and Asia hardest.

02

Markets at a Glance

Composite Risk Score
5.0/10
Moderate · Stable Conditions
S&P 500-0.20%
7,560
5-day trend
NASDAQ-0.61%
26,122
5-day trend
10Y YIELD+0.31%
4.58%
5-day trend
DOW JONES
52,719
+0.16%
RUSSELL 2K
GOLD
OIL WTI
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03

World Markets

North America
S&P 5007,560.23-0.20%
Nasdaq26,121.55-0.61%
Dow Jones52,719.15+0.16%
10Y Yield4.58%+0.31%
Europe
FTSE 10010,478.64-0.18%
DAX25,090.05+0.09%
CAC 408,342.39+0.04%
Euro Stoxx 506,265.36-0.07%
Asia
Nikkei 22567,242.73-1.92%
Hang Seng24,213.72+0.16%
Shanghai3,913.79-2.06%
04

The Big Picture

Markets are jittery, and the reason is written in oil and rockets. The US and Iran traded fire over the weekend, oil jumped, and the Nasdaq slid 0.61% while the Dow eked out a small gain. That split tells you everything: money is leaving expensive tech and hiding in safer, cheaper stocks. Asia took it hardest. The Nikkei dropped 1.92% and Shanghai fell 2.06%, with chipmaker SK Hynix plunging. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.58%, meaning borrowing got a little more expensive.

The real event isn't the missiles — it's tomorrow. CPI inflation data lands Tuesday, and big banks kick off earnings the same morning. JPMorgan and Bank of America should post strong numbers, partly thanks to the SpaceX IPO and all the war-driven trading volatility. But a hot inflation print would corner Kevin Warsh's Fed and push rate cuts further out. The opportunity: if inflation stays tame, the pullback in tech becomes a discount rather than a warning. Watch the CPI number before you touch anything.

05

Story of the Day

Yahoo Finance

'Dirty Jobs' host Mike Rowe: We have become untethered from the definition of work

Mike Rowe argues we've lost sight of what real work means, favoring credentials over skilled trades. For everyday investors, that's a labor-market signal: the shortage of welders, electricians, and machinists is a real cost that shows up in construction delays and higher prices. Where workers are scarce, wages and project costs climb — and that feeds straight into inflation and company margins.

06

More Headlines

07

Coming Up This Week

TUE
14
JPM Earnings ★★
SpaceX IPO and war volatility should juice revenue; watch loan losses
BAC Earnings ★★
Trading desks likely booming, but watch the consumer for cracks
8:30 AM ET
CPI (Consumer Price Index) ★★★
The number that decides how long Warsh holds rates
WED
15
8:30 AM ET
PPI (Producer Price Index) ★★
Wholesale prices hint at where consumer inflation heads next
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Manufacturing Index ★★
Early read on factory health in a nervous month
THU
16
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales ★★★
Key test of whether shoppers are still spending
8:30 AM ET
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ★★
Second factory gauge; a soft print signals slowing growth
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims ★★
Any uptick is the first crack in the labor story
FRI
17
8:30 AM ET
Housing Starts & Building Permits ★★
Higher yields bite here; weak permits pressure homebuilders
9:15 AM ET
Industrial Production ★★
Shows if factories are shrinking as oil prices climb
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